Tensions between Iran and the United States escalated again this week. As reported by Euronews on November 3, Tehran warned of a «new battlefield» following an alleged US attack on Qeshm Island in the Persian Gulf. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, asserted that Washington must avoid war.
What is known and what is not known
It’s important to distinguish between what’s confirmed and what isn’t. What is confirmed is the reaction of the Iranian authorities: they declared a defensive alert and pointed to US bases in the region. The attack in Qeshm is described in reports as «alleged,» and the operational details remain unverified. Therefore, it’s prudent to read the figures and characterizations from each side as statements, not as proven facts.
The incident occurred amid a war in the Middle East in which US forces have attacked Iranian targets, according to international media. Following the November 3 midterm elections, President Donald Trump publicly defended the war and said he was not considering replacing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, even though the US handling of the conflict was a major source of discontent among voters.
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The immediate effect on oil
The Persian Gulf is a key route for global crude oil, so any sign of escalation or easing tensions is immediately reflected in prices. This week’s data illustrates this:
- On November 2, Brent crude fell 7.6% amid expectations of less tension.
- On election day and the following day, the price continued to fall, with a decline of nearly 9% in one of the sessions.
- On November 5, it rebounded 3.9% and closed around $98.29, according to the AP.
These fluctuations, of several percentage points in a single day, show how sensitive the market is to headlines about the region.
What might happen now?
There are three fronts that should be monitored in the coming days:
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- The military response: whether Iran makes concrete threats against US bases or whether both sides choose to lower their tone.
- Congress: With the change of majorities in Washington, the Democrats have indicated that their main research targets will be the administration’s policies, and Congress controls the funding of military operations.
- Energy: a new jump in crude oil prices would put pressure on gas pumps and inflation.
As with any ongoing conflict, information changes rapidly. This text includes information published up to November 10, 2026, and will be updated if verified information becomes available.
Sources consulted: Euronews, Associated Press and Zacks.
